When Does Negative Campaigning Work?

In democracies, elections are essentially a popularity contest between politicians. People naturally prefer people who are positive; therefore, ideally a candidate would want their campaign to be as positive as possible. Running negative advertisements can backfire as the voters are intelligent enough to “realize that the source of said ads and rhetoric is not the candidate being attacked but the candidate running against him or her.” The conventional wisdom about negative political campaigning is that “it’s ugly and destructive, but effective.” However, it is generally unacceptable to go negative on a candidate because of an issue that is not related to the campaign. For instance, if an opponent’s spouse has a drug addiction and the ad is simply exploiting that information. These personal details are unrelated to the candidate, policies, and election and would likely backfire on the politician that endorsed the commercial.

Campaigns should avoid attacking a family member of an opponent. Although, opponent’s close acquaintances – such as business associates and mentors – are fair game, so long as their association could be believed to impact the policies of the opponent. For instance, if a major contributor to the opponent was involved in stock manipulation. A candidate can dissociate with the connection with the passage of time, but it will drain the “campaign resources” to remove this type of association. A real-life example would be Trump’s association with the adult movie star, Stormy Daniels.   

If the candidate was to release damaging information about the opponent, s/he would have to do it closer to the election to give the opponent less time react to the allegations. However, it cannot be done too close to the election as the voters might suspect the allegation are being used as a political weapon and disregard it. Another strategy would be releasing the information early in the race. It can push the opponent to go in defense from early on in the campaign and burn his/her resources. Moreover, it may help the attacking candidate conserve resources as their opponent is on defense “from the outset of the race.” 

A candidate can go negative without appearing negative by creating comparisons between him/her and the opponent. The candidates can list beliefs like abortion, taxes and other social issues and share them using press releases, internet and direct mail. These messages should be crafted in a way that would assist voters in self-realization that the opponent is not fit for office. It is always better to have the negative attacks coming from a third-party than from the candidate themself.  

UC Davis psychology professor, Alison Ledgerwood, studies “framing effects” –  how people process information based on how it’s presented to them. Professor Ledgerwood found that a negative frame is much more persistent, or “stickier,” than a positive one. In other words, our brain is designed to remember negative information. A few examples would be the nicknames given to candidates and bills. The nickname “Tricky Dick” given to Nixon after his California senate race “dogged his entire political career.” The Affordable Care Act was almost halted by the phrase “death panels.” Associating the opponent with a negative term can help the candidate gain voters without seeming negative.  

While negative campaigns might help candidates gain an edge over their opponent, it is generally wise to stick with a more positive campaign. Negative campaigns can backfire and hurt the candidate pushing the bleak ads. Negative campaigns are a great option for candidates who are not incumbents and have little or no name recognition. However, a candidate with a “positive message is likely to garner more votes.”

WRS is able to strategize and create various campaign plans and mitigate any bumps along the campaign trail – such as negative attacks – with our political consulting. Reach out if you are interesting in our general consulting service.  

Sources:

Gregory, Peter A. “Comparing the Effectiveness of Positive and Negative Political Campaigns.” Inquiries Journal, Inquiries Journal, 1 Nov. 2015, http://www.inquiriesjournal.com/articles/1311/2/comparing-the-effectiveness-of-positive-and-negative-political-campaigns.  

Holder, Kathleen. “Why Negative Campaigning Works - and How to Fight It.” UC Davis College of Letters and Science, 11 Dec. 2020, https://lettersandscience.ucdavis.edu/blog/why-negative-campaigning-works-and-how-fight-it. 

McNamara, Michael. “When Is It Ok To ‘Go Negative’?” The Political Campaign Desk Reference: A Guide for Campaign Managers, Operatives, and Candidates Running for Political Office, Campaign guy Press, an Imprint of Mason Grant LLC, 2019.  

“Negative Campaigning.” Obo, https://www.oxfordbibliographies.com/view/document/obo-9780199756223/obo-9780199756223-0228.xml. 

Quelch, John. “Going Negative in Political Advertising.” Harvard Business Review, 21 May 2008, https://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/going-negative-in-political-advertising.